A further easing of
monetary policy by major central banks in recent months, especially by the U.S.
Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, has not triggered another burst of hot money into
emerging markets or raised the value of their currencies as in previous years,
according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
The Federal
Reserve’s September announcement of unlimited purchases of mortgage-backed securities and
its intention to keep rates at close to zero until mid-2015, along
with Japan’s expansion of its asset purchases, was greeted with fresh accusations of protectionism and warnings of “currency wars", especially by Brazil’s finance minister.
The phrase was first
used in 2010 after the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked on a second round of
quantitative easing, which lowered the value of the dollar - which helps U.S. exporters and makes it harder for their competitors - and triggered an inflow
of funds in search of higher yields in emerging market economies.
“Yet this time the
U.S. dollar appreciated in the three months from the beginning of September,
both against a number of individual emerging market currencies and on a
trade-weighted basis,” the BIS said in a special feature in its latest quarterly review, adding:
“Softer growth
prospects in emerging markets partly explain why their currencies and capital
flows reacted differently to monetary easing in advance economies.”
Several emerging
markets also reacted to the Federal Reserve’s easing by policy measures, with
Brazil’s central bank intervening in currency markets, and foreign exchange
traders were under the impression that other central banks in Latin American
and East Asia were also in the markets.
In Europe, the
Czech central bank said it may consider intervening and South Korean authorities
investigated banks foreign currency positions and tightened limits on their
exposure to currency derivatives.
“All these measures
were generally associated with more stable currency values, as evidenced by
option implied volatilities,” BIS said.
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